Growing fear over a persistent epidemic of bird flu across Asia is leading to urgent calls from international scientists to prepare for a global flu pandemic that could strike, by some estimates, 20 percent of the world's population.

In a collection of articles published today in the journal Nature, scientists sketch out a scenario in which a strain of bird flu, which usually would not be dangerous to people, adapts to become highly contagious and deadly to humans. The scientists warn that not enough antiviral medicines are stockpiled and that there are no human vaccines yet. There also are no plans in most countries to cope with the health and economic disaster the scientists say would result.

There is still uncertainty about when a pandemic might emerge, says Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. But "the accumulation of evidence is very disturbing."

Gannett News Service

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