A new report is warning that California would be hit hard in the event of a pandemic flu and that the U.S. government isn't doing enough to prepare for it.

The report, released Friday by the Trust for America's Health, a nonpartisan public health group, warns that up to 8 million Californians could be infected by a pandemic flu and nearly 61,000 could die.

The resurgence of a lethal strain of bird flu, H5N1, in Southeast Asia is raising concerns among global health experts that a pandemic influenza may be on the horizon.

Using models developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Trust for America's Health estimates that more than half a million Americans could die and 2.3 million could be hospitalized if a moderately severe strain of pandemic flu virus hits the United States. About 67 million would be at risk of contracting the illness.

The authors will present the findings Thursday to members of the House Government Reform Committee at a hearing on U.S. preparedness for pandemic flu.

As the most populous state, California could be most affected. The projections were based on 1999 U.S. Census figures and previous pandemics in 1918 and in the 1960s. The authors assumed a 25 percent infection rate, a figure they called conservative.

"This country is lagging in itsreadiness for pandemic flu," said Shelley Hearne, executive director for the Trust for America's Health. "There is great concern that this emerging strain of avian flu could be the next pandemic."

Dr. Carol Glaser, chief of the California Department of Health Services' viral branch in Richmond, said the numbers are highly speculative but not wild guesses. "There are many variables to this, so it's impossible to project," she said.

The CDC has estimated that a pandemic flu could kill 200,000 Americans, including about 20,000 Californians -- fewer than the group's new estimates, but still substantial numbers.

Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., chairman of the House Government Reform Committee, said this issue should not be taken lightly.

"The Trust for America's Health report clearly demonstrates that the emergence of a pandemic flu could exact a tremendous toll on U.S. health and economic stability," Davis said in a statement.

The H5N1 subtype of bird flu has killed 54 of the 107 people in Southeast Asia since its re-emergence in late 2003. Global health experts fear that, though now contained, H5N1 could mutate to spread easily among humans and fuel the next pandemic.

Glaser called avian flu "the biggest public health threat I'll face in my career" and said the nation needs to do more to prepare.

Trust for America's Health is warning that the United States is lagging behind Canada and Britain in its readiness efforts -- a concern echoed by everyone from the CDC to members of Congress to local health officials.

For instance, more than 2 million Americans may need to be hospitalized during a flu pandemic, but the United States has fewer than a million staffed hospital beds, according to the report.

And preparations such as who would have priority for antiviral remedies such as Tamiflu have not been made in this country. Britain and Canada, by contrast, have developed these plans.

"There needs to be a public discussion now because we can't make these decisions amid an unfolding crisis," Hearne said.

Meanwhile, two drug companies are fighting over the rights to Tamiflu, the drug that is considered the best defense against bird flu, for which there is no vaccine.

Last week, Foster City-based Gilead Sciences, which invented the drug, said it wants to take back the rights from Swiss manufacturer Roche, citing slow production.

The United States has only ordered enough Tamiflu for about 2 percent of the population. Britain has ordered enough for a quarter of its population.

Both companies and the U.S. Health and Human Services Department have said that the dispute will not affect Tamiflu production.

But Hearne said the federal government needs to be more involved.

"We cannot afford to have two companies duke this out," she said. "It's something the administration needs to be engaged in."

Contact Rebecca Vesely at rvesely@dailyreviewonline.com.

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