New viruses a worry
State has plans to handle eventual flu pandemic
FLU FACTS
How it spreads: The main way is through respiratory droplets of coughs and sneezes --- called "droplet spread."
How long it lives: Some viruses can live two hours or longer on surfaces like cafeteria tables, doorknobs and desks.
How to stop the spread: Cover your mouth and nose when you cough. Wash your hands frequently using soap and warm water. Gel sanitizers work, too.
Hand-washing tip: Wash for 15 to 20 seconds --- which is about the same as singing the happy birthday song twice.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
By Chris Moon
THE CAPITAL-JOURNAL
State health officials think the long lines of last year's flu season are long gone.
The state should be able to steer clear of a shortage of flu vaccine.
But now health officials are worried about a disastrous outbreak of new strains of the deadly disease.
The Kansas Department of Health and Environment on Monday released an updated version of its pandemic influenza response plan, anticipating an outbreak of bird flu in Asia and Indonesia could find its way into humans.
"Our concern is that the virus could mutate," said state health director Dr. Howard Rodenberg. "It's being followed very closely worldwide."
Still, health officials tried not to stir a panic. They said a major flu outbreak was likely to happen sometime in the future, but they wouldn't lay out the chances of it happening this year.
"If we could predict that, it would sure make our job easier," said state epidemiologist Gail Hansen.
Across the globe, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said Monday that the likelihood of a flu pandemic in the future is "very high."
Leavitt, accompanied by world health officials, was visiting Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam to seek their collaboration in preparing for the anticipated public health emergency.
In the past 2 1/2 years, the H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in Southeast Asia, also infecting humans and killing at least 65 people. The virus doesn't pass from person to person easily, but experts believe this could change if the virus mutates.
Leavitt said there were three influenza pandemics in the past century and "the likelihood of another is very high, some say even certain."
"Whether or not H5N1 is the virus that will ultimately trigger such a pandemic is unknown to us," he said at a news conference. "The probability is uncertain. But the warning signs are troubling. Hence we are responding in a robust way."
Leavitt said his delegation reviewed Thailand's plan of action against bird flu and that a draft of a comprehensive U.S. plan would be released in a few days.
Should the Asian bird flu find easier access into humans --- only 116 human cases have been reported so far, according to Kansas officials --- it would render useless the flu vaccines that babies and high-risk adults are encouraged to receive today.
The vaccine people can receive today, Rodenberg said, is designed to build up antibodies to the strains of the flu virus that are expected to be common this winter.
But new viruses can emerge at any time. And it takes months to develop vaccines to counteract those strains.
The state response plan narrates the steps state and local officials will take to quarantine people infected with the disease and distribute vaccines and anti-viral drugs.
Kansas officials estimate as many as 486,000 people would require outpatient care during a pandemic and as many as 2,500 could be killed. National estimates are that as many as 207,000 Americans could die.
At a news conference Monday, the possibility of a flu pandemic had reporters and state officials harking back to the 1918 influenza outbreak that claimed 21 million lives worldwide, including an estimated 12,000 Kansans.
It occurred during World War I, Rodenberg noted, when the United States was undergoing mass shipments of people and goods, making the control of the illness difficult.
Today's society is much the same, with interstate travel more frequent than ever.
"It's going to be real hard to quarantine any part of the country," Rodenberg said.
But he said the 2003 outbreak in Canada of SARS, a flu-like disease, showed that self-quarantining people in their homes had proven effective. Most people followed the rules, he said.
Hansen said another pandemic of the 1918 scale would last a year to 18 months, possibly with multiple peaks.
It isn't like your typical flu season, she said.
"It's likely to be fairly sustained," she said.
And so she and other officials continue drumming for people to receive flu vaccinations.
High-risk individuals should seek shots before Oct. 24 to ensure enough shots are available:
- Babies 6 to 23 months old and adults older than 65;
- Child care workers;
- Pregnant women;
- People with long-term health problems, such as heart disease or asthma;
- Health workers involved in patient care; and
- Nursing home residents.
All other individuals are encouraged to receive flu shots after Oct. 24.
"It's good to get in early, because we always run out of the vaccine," said Dr. Camille Heeb, a pediatrician who is giving out flu shots to her patients at 631 S.W. Horne.
Otherwise, people are encouraged to use good hygiene --- cover your coughs and wash your hands, state health officials say.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Chris Moon can be reached
at (785) 233-7470 or chris.moon@cjonline.com.
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Flu: Avian virus is being watched
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