FOSTER CITY -- A bird flu pandemic would be a little like an earthquake -- minus the falling buildings -- that lasts up to 18 months and shakes the whole world, San Mateo Health Officer Scott Morrow said Monday.

For that reason, Morrow urged the public and local governments to think about how they would take care of themselves in case of such an emergency, when government help might be scarce.

"That's what makes it very different from other disasters. Here, the entire world is affected, and no one is spared. There is no cavalry to come and protect you," said Dr. Morrow, who gave a televised presentation at the Foster City Council Chambers to county police, firefighters and paramedics who would be out on the front lines.

In a worst-case outbreak, San Mateo County would not have enough doctors and nurses to treat its throngs of patients, but Morrow said local hospitals are working on contingency plans.

Schools, movie theaters and restaurants probably would be forced to close to prevent the spread of the disease, he said.

Local governments and businesses would find about 75 percent of their employees too sick or too scared to come to work.

There would be shortages of food and fuel.

Morrow recommends that people have at least a week's worth of food and water on hand.

Surgical masks, in addition tofrequent handwashing, also would help prevent sickness.

Worries about pandemic

Public health officials have been worried about a bird flu pandemic for more than seven years, Morrow said. President Bush has drawn attention to the issue by calling for a national strategy against the threat.

The concern stems from a virus spreading among birds in southeast Asia. So far, fewer than 200 people have become sick from being around infected birds. Sixty-three have died.

But scientists are afraid the virus will mutate into a form that passes from person to person. In that case, the disease likely would spread far and wide because people have built up little or no immunity.

Such a pandemic could kill 150,000 to 200,000 Californians in a worst-case scenario, Morrow said.

A vaccination would be the most effective way to stop the spread, but one has not yet been developed, and Morrow is skeptical that it will be manufactured and distributed in time.

"I really couldn't promise that, and I don't think it's likely," he said.

Federal officials have trouble distributing enough flu vaccine to combat the seasonal outbreaks (of "conventional" flu) every year, he said.

Some flu clinics in San Mateo County have been canceled because of a temporary shortage, he said.

The Centers for Disease Control says demand for the flu shot is up this year, possibly because of the mistaken belief that the shot protects against bird flu.

The CDC is urging people to be patient, saying new supplies of the vaccine should arrive before flu season arrives late next month.

Tamiflu

A second line of defense against bird flu is the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, which was invented in Foster City at Gilead Sciences. It might prevent some people from getting the disease or lessen the respiratory and other flu symptoms of those who are infected, he said.

San Mateo County government doesn't have any doses on hand but could access the federal government's stockpile of

2 million doses in the event of a local outbreak.

Morrow's presentation will be shown on Peninsula TV, which is channel 26 on most area cable networks, six times in the coming weeks. The dates and times are: 2:30 p.m. Wednesday, 10 p.m. Friday, 2:30 p.m. Nov. 23, 9:30 p.m. Nov. 24, 10 p.m. Nov. 25 and 7:30 p.m. Dec. 1.

Staff writer Laura Ernde covers county government and health issues. She can be reached at (650) 306-2428 or by e-mail at lernde@sanmateocountytimes.com.

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