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MANILA, Nov. 3 Kyodo

Asia may now be a major engine for global growth, but the economic damage of a bird flu pandemic could bring that growth to a standstill and bleed Asia about $283 billion, 6.5 percent of the region's economic growth, the Asian Development Bank warned Thursday.

Avian flu could seriously derail economic expansion in the region, perhaps causing the ''most serious'' interruption since the financial crisis of 1997 if the disease acquired the ability to spread easily from person to person, the Manila-based bank said.

In a policy study released Thursday, the bank painted two scenarios to estimate the cost of a pandemic -- the first assumes the psychological impact lasts for two quarters while the second extends the shock to four quarters.

The short-term impact could cost $99.2 billion in lost consumer spending, trade and investment, the equivalent of 2.3 percentage points of projected regional economic growth for 2006, the bank said.

Losses in reduction in labor due to death or absence by workers could account for $14.2 billion, or another 0.3 percentage point, it added.

But the consequences could be ''significantly worse if the outbreak lasts longer or is more virulent,'' the bank warned.

A doomsday outlook, where a wave of fear engulfs the region, could lead to recession, with losses amounting to $282.7 billion.

Asia would virtually stop, with a regional growth rate of 0.1 percent that could shrink global economic growth by 0.6 percent.

Global trade in goods and services could also contract around 14 percent, $2.5 trillion, the bank said.

The bank assumes an infection rate of 20 percent and a fatality rate of 0.5 percent in its projections.

Bird flu has, since late 2003, infected more than a hundred people in Asia, killing nearly half of them.

And the United Nations has said the virus killed more than 140 million birds and caused at least $10 billion in economic losses in Asia.

''Nobody can predict the consequences of a new flu pandemic. There are simply too many unknowns...(It) will impact the region in other ways that cannot be easily modeled,'' the bank said.

With people fearful of infection, businesses that involve human contact such as tourism would be directly hit, it added.

In projecting bird flu's psychological impact, the ADB made comparisons with SARS, the respiratory infection that struck Asia in 2003 and drastically slowed regional tourism.

SARS infected at least 8,000 and killed about 10 percent of them, costing the region more than $18 billion, the ADB said.

''Much of the Asian boom is built on confidence in the region's growth potential. A pandemic could shake that confidence and lower future investment,'' it added.

The bank urged strong international cooperation to avert fears of a bird flu pandemic.

''Countries in the region will be in a better position if they cooperate and share information with each other and the public. The international community has the responsibility to ensure that all countries can respond effectively, '' the bank added.