Any severe outbreak of avian flu could cost the Asia-Pacific region between $250 and $290 billion in the short term, according to preliminary estimates issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Even a relatively mild pandemic could cost the region between $90 and $110 billion because of the effects of reduced consumption, investment and trade, the Manila-based bank believes. The loss of workers through death and incapacity could cost an additional $15 billion, it said. In a recent interview with Agence France-Presse, the ADB's principal health specialist Jacques Jeugmans warned that many economic activities would be brought to a halt if the avian flu bug started to spread though the human population, while the health systems of most countries would be overwhelmed "We are examining all scenarios to try and determine how to respond. In the worst-case scenario you run the risk of society coming to a standstill," he noted. The present outbreak of bird flu has already had an impact on poor and rural communities throughout Asia, with almost 140 million domestic birds having either died or been destroyed. However, to date only just over 60 people are known to have died.

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