THE Government is reported to have stepped up contingency plans to deal with an epidemic of avian flu by ordering enough of the antiviral drug Tamiflu to supply a quarter of the British population.

On the one hand doom-mongers are predicting an avian flu pandemic that could kill as many as half a million people here in the UK, a possibility which government ministers have gone on record as saying poses "a far greater risk to Britons than a terrorist threat".

Meanwhile, officials from the Health Protection Agency insist there is still no firm evidence that the disease can spread from human to human (essential for an epidemic) and that "the threat to the UK at the moment is extremely small". So who is right?

Concern centres on the H5N1 strain of avian flu, which has made the jump into humans. The first recorded case was in Hong Kong in 1997, and in the past year there have been 55 across Asia, 42 of which have been fatal.

Until recently it was thought that humans could only catch the disease through close contact with infected birds, particularly poultry, and that they couldn't pass it on to other people. But at the end of January a Cambodian woman was thought to have caught the disease from her brother (this cannot be confirmed as he was cremated before tests could be done).

If she did, it will be the first case of human-to-human transmission, suggesting that the virus has mutated into a form that could spread through humans in the same way as it has torn through poultry flocks across Asia.

Call me a cynic, but while I can see the potential for a global disaster, I can't help feeling that the story has been bumped up the health agenda thanks to the vested interest of virologists, the World Health Organisation (WHO), politicians and the pharmaceutical industry.

Are virologists "shroud waving" in an attempt to raise the profile of their speciality and attract more funding (it certainly worked for BSE/CJD)? Are politicians, the Department of Health and the WHO simply covering their backsides in case the improbable happens and there is a global epidemic? And what is Roche, which manufactures Tamiflu, likely to be doing when faced with a massive increase in demand for a product that, until now, has hardly been flying off the shelves? Despite having 10,000 patients, we haven't prescribed it once in five years.

It costs up to Pounds 80 to stockpile enough Tamiflu to protect just one person in the event of an epidemic and, even then, there are no guarantees that it will stop them catching the disease, or prevent them dying from it. So is it really appropriate to divert so much scarce NHS resources to the defence of such an unlikely threat when there are far more dangerous enemies in our midst?

Consider what happened to Sars, a potentially lethal disease known to spread from human to human and for which there is no known treatment.

Despite global panic in 2003, according to recent WHO figures there have only been 10,000 probable cases and less than 1,000 deaths over the past two years. The disease appears to have burnt itself out.

Or to put the risks into perspective, in the past 12 months avian flu has killed the same number of people across the world as MRSA will probably kill in NHS hospitals next weekend.

The real date-rape culprit

DATE rape is back in the headlines after official statistics released by the Home Office showed that the number of reported cases of rape continues to rise, reaching an all-time high of nearly 12,000 a year.

While drugs such as sleeping tablets and tranquillisers are undoubtedly used to spike some drinks in pubs and clubs, I, like many of my colleagues, consider tales of their widespread use to be largely based on urban myth. The real date-rape drug is alcohol.

It is actually very hard to get away with spiking someone's drink with prescription drugs thanks to moves by manufacturers to include dyes, or ingredients that make them extremely bitter.

On the other hand it is very easy to drink too much alcohol, which has a near-identical effect on your behaviour and your memory as notorious date rape drugs such as "roofies" (Rohypnol).

Alcohol is also considerably easier to obtain and nearly always self-administered.

Sudan 1 is risky

( if you eat 100 shepherds pies a day for a decade )

ON the subject of scares and the public perception of risk, what on earth is the Sudan 1 fiasco all about?

Traces of this banned dye, which has been linked to cancer in rats, have been found in around 500 different food products on sale in the UK, prompting the biggest food recall in history, and scaring the wits out of people who have been unlucky enough to consume them over the past year or so.

I think it is great that we live in a society that takes food safety so seriously, but, as with the threat from avian flu, we need to get the risks into perspective and use resources sensibly.

According to toxicologists you would need to eat at least 100 Sudan 1-contaminated shepherd's pies every day for decades to be exposed to the sort of quantities of dye that have been shown to cause liver cancer in laboratory rats (there is NO evidence that it causes cancer in humans).

I dread to think what the recall has cost the authorities, retailers and the food industry, but I am sure the threat to the nation's health was negligible and that the money could have been put to far better use - initiating a Jamie Oliver-type approach to better nutrition in our schools would have been a good place to start.

Shooting up in my surgery

AFTER discovering that heroin addicts have been shooting themselves up in the surgery waiting room loo, it comes as little surprise to read that Britain is now regarded as the heroin capital of Europe. It is everywhere.

Not only are we getting used to finding used needles and syringes in the toilets, but we have seen a significant increase in the number of addicts on our list - I see at least one heroin user a day in my surgery, and if abuse is that common in a market town in the Cotswolds then you can bet it is a lot worse in other parts of the country.

The UK now accounts for the lion's share of heroin seizures across Europe - around three tonnes a year.

(c)2005. Associated Newspapers Ltd.. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved.